Serie A
Atalanta vs Genoa
Saturday, May 02, 18:45
Consensus
High confidence · 78.6%Atalanta
81.9%
Draw
12.9%
Genoa
5.2%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 72.4% | 24.0% | 3.6% |
| poisson | 89.1% | 7.4% | 3.5% |
| elo | 71.0% | 15.0% | 14.0% |
- Atalanta wPPG 2.38 (home 2.57, W-W-L-W-W)
- Genoa wPPG 1.13 (away 1.00, W-L-L-D-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.88
- xG Atalanta 3.23 vs Genoa 0.50
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Atalanta 1663 vs Genoa 1441
- Home-field bonus +60
Value bets
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).