Today's safest plays
Highest model probability per fixture, ranked by confidence. Best place to start if you want straightforward picks rather than chasing edges.
| Kickoff | Match | Pick | Probability | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Apr 18, 20:05 | Athletics vs Chicago White Sox  MLB | Athletics | 87.3% | 1.61 | High |
| Sat, Apr 18, 19:05 | Lille vs Nice  Ligue 1 | Lille | 82.2% | 1.50 | High |
| Sun, Apr 19, 18:45 | Juventus vs Bologna  Serie A | Juventus | 81.0% | — | High |
| Sat, Apr 18, 20:10 | Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers MLB | Detroit Tigers | 74.2% | 1.65 | High |
| Sun, Apr 19, 13:30 | SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim  Bundesliga | SC Freiburg | 74.9% | 1.67 | High |
| Wed, Apr 22, 10:30 | FC Anyang vs Ulsan HD  KHL | FC Anyang | 71.2% | — | High |
| Sun, Apr 19, 13:00 | Aston Villa vs Sunderland  Premier League | Aston Villa | 68.6% | 1.75 | Medium |
| Sun, Apr 19, 17:30 | Borussia M'gladbach vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga | Borussia M'gladbach | 65.6% | 2.35 | Medium |
Today's best edges
Bets where the model thinks the bookmaker priced it wrong — biggest expected value first. Higher payout, more variance.
| Kickoff | Match | Pick | Odds | Model | EV | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Apr 21, 19:30 | Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés  La Liga | Deportivo Alavés | 13.00 | 20.0% | +160.5% | 13.4% |
| Sun, Apr 19, 17:30 | Borussia M'gladbach vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga | Borussia M'gladbach | 2.35 | 65.6% | +54.1% | 40.1% |
| Sat, Apr 18, 17:00 | Angers vs Le Havre Ligue 1 | Angers | 3.30 | 43.0% | +41.8% | 18.2% |
| Sat, Apr 18, 20:05 | Athletics vs Chicago White Sox MLB | Athletics | 1.61 | 87.3% | +40.5% | 66.4% |
| Tue, Apr 21, 19:30 | Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés La Liga | Draw | 6.00 | 22.7% | +36.4% | 7.3% |
| Sun, Apr 19, 15:15 | RC Strasbourg vs Stade Rennais Ligue 1 | RC Strasbourg | 2.63 | 50.6% | +33.1% | 20.3% |
| Sun, Apr 19, 16:00 | Pisa vs Genoa Serie A | Draw | 3.10 | 42.3% | +31.3% | 14.9% |
| Sun, Apr 19, 13:00 | Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Premier League | Burnley | 7.00 | 18.6% | +29.9% | 5.0% |