Serie A
Roma vs Fiorentina
Monday, May 04, 18:45
Consensus
High confidence · 78.7%Roma
80.9%
Draw
14.8%
Fiorentina
4.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 73.1% | 24.0% | 2.9% |
| poisson | 87.2% | 10.2% | 2.7% |
| elo | 71.9% | 15.0% | 13.1% |
- Roma wPPG 2.27 (home 2.40, W-W-W-W-L)
- Fiorentina wPPG 0.79 (away 0.20, L-L-L-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 2.01
- xG Roma 2.50 vs Fiorentina 0.24
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Roma 1645 vs Fiorentina 1410
- Home-field bonus +60
Value bets
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).