Serie A
Cagliari vs Atalanta
Monday, Apr 27, 16:30
Consensus
Medium confidence · 66.9%Cagliari
13.6%
book 18.6%
Draw
21.7%
book 26.6%
Atalanta
64.6%
book 54.8%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 4.9% | 24.0% | 71.1% |
| poisson | 16.5% | 18.8% | 64.7% |
| elo | 14.3% | 15.0% | 70.7% |
| market | 18.6% | 26.6% | 54.8% |
- Cagliari wPPG 0.40 (home 0.25, L-D-L-D-L)
- Atalanta wPPG 2.38 (away 2.00, W-W-L-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -1.68
- xG Cagliari 0.87 vs Atalanta 2.00
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Cagliari 1326 vs Atalanta 1663
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- away 1.70EV +9.9%Edge 9.9%Kelly 14.1%