Serie A
Hellas Verona vs Lecce
Saturday, Apr 25, 18:45
Consensus
Low confidence · 26.2%Hellas Verona
40.0%
book 43.2%
Draw
27.9%
book 31.0%
Lecce
32.0%
book 25.8%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 18.5% | 34.1% | 47.3% |
| poisson | 59.6% | 18.3% | 22.1% |
| elo | 29.9% | 28.0% | 42.1% |
| market | 43.2% | 31.0% | 25.8% |
- Hellas Verona wPPG 0.28 (home 0.20, L-L-L-D-D)
- Lecce wPPG 1.10 (away 1.20, L-D-W-D-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.59
- xG Hellas Verona 2.23 vs Lecce 1.28
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Hellas Verona 1312 vs Lecce 1432
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- away 3.60EV +15.2%Edge 6.2%Kelly 5.9%