Serie A
Hellas Verona vs Milan
Sunday, Apr 19, 13:00
Consensus
Medium confidence · 59.4%Hellas Verona
17.5%
book 14.7%
Draw
22.3%
book 23.8%
Milan
60.2%
book 61.5%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 8.4% | 27.3% | 64.3% |
| poisson | 29.6% | 18.7% | 51.6% |
| elo | 19.5% | 18.6% | 62.0% |
| market | 14.7% | 23.8% | 61.5% |
- Hellas Verona wPPG 0.28 (home 0.20, L-L-L-D-D)
- Milan wPPG 1.94 (away 1.60, W-D-D-W-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -1.27
- xG Hellas Verona 1.67 vs Milan 2.24
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Hellas Verona 1312 vs Milan 1573
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 6.50EV +14.0%Edge 2.9%Kelly 2.5%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.67 – 2.24 · No goal 2.0% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| R. Leão | Milan | F | 0.46 | 51.4% | 17.0% |
| C. Pulišić | Milan | F | 0.40 | 46.4% | 14.7% |
| G. Orban | Hellas Verona | F | 0.34 | 45.3% | 14.2% |
| R. Belghali | Hellas Verona | M | 0.17 | 26.9% | 7.4% |
| D. Bartesaghi | Milan | D | 0.14 | 20.1% | 5.3% |
| R. Gagliardini | Hellas Verona | M | 0.11 | 18.2% | 4.7% |
| A. Bernede | Hellas Verona | M | 0.11 | 18.2% | 4.7% |
| A. Rabiot | Milan | M | 0.11 | 16.1% | 4.1% |
| S. Pavlović | Milan | D | 0.08 | 12.3% | 3.1% |
| Z. Athekame | Milan | D | 0.08 | 12.3% | 3.1% |
| J. Akpa | Hellas Verona | M | 0.05 | 8.6% | 2.1% |
| A. Harroui | Hellas Verona | M | 0.05 | 8.6% | 2.1% |
| Y. Fofana | Milan | M | 0.05 | 7.5% | 1.8% |
| L. Modrić | Milan | M | 0.05 | 7.5% | 1.8% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 92.1% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.