Serie A
Cremonese vs Torino
Sunday, Apr 19, 10:30
Consensus
Low confidence · 20.3%Cremonese
35.5%
book 32.5%
Draw
31.4%
book 30.4%
Torino
33.1%
book 37.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 36.2% | 37.9% | 25.9% |
| poisson | 36.6% | 29.0% | 34.4% |
| elo | 37.9% | 30.1% | 32.0% |
| market | 32.5% | 30.4% | 37.0% |
- Cremonese wPPG 0.86 (home 0.60, D-D-D-L-D)
- Torino wPPG 1.15 (away 0.60, L-D-W-W-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.21
- xG Cremonese 0.97 vs Torino 0.93
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Cremonese 1400 vs Torino 1431
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 0.97 – 0.93 · No goal 14.8% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| F. Bonazzoli | Cremonese | F | 0.40 | 32.5% | 16.5% |
| C. Adams | Torino | F | 0.34 | 20.9% | 9.9% |
| G. Simeone | Torino | F | 0.34 | 20.9% | 9.9% |
| N. Vlasic | Torino | M | 0.30 | 18.8% | 8.8% |
| D. Okereke | Cremonese | F | 0.15 | 13.7% | 6.2% |
| F. Terracciano | Cremonese | D | 0.08 | 7.9% | 3.5% |
| F. Baschirotto | Cremonese | D | 0.08 | 7.9% | 3.5% |
| S. Coco | Torino | D | 0.08 | 5.7% | 2.5% |
| G. Maripan | Torino | D | 0.08 | 5.7% | 2.5% |
| G. Pezzella | Cremonese | M | 0.05 | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| A. Zerbin | Cremonese | M | 0.05 | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| W. Bondo | Cremonese | M | 0.05 | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| A. Grassi | Cremonese | M | 0.05 | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| J. Vandeputte | Cremonese | M | 0.05 | 4.8% | 2.1% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 80.0% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.