Premier League
Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest
Monday, May 04, 14:00
Consensus
Medium confidence · 56.6%Chelsea
58.5%
Draw
23.2%
Nottingham Forest
18.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 48.7% | 33.7% | 17.6% |
| poisson | 67.6% | 17.3% | 15.0% |
| elo | 51.5% | 23.6% | 24.9% |
- Chelsea wPPG 1.29 (home 1.33, D-L-W-W-D)
- Nottingham Forest wPPG 1.24 (away 1.50, L-W-L-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.63
- xG Chelsea 2.17 vs Nottingham Forest 0.89
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Chelsea 1507 vs Nottingham Forest 1441
- Home-field bonus +60
Value bets
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).