Premier League
Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest
Friday, Apr 24, 19:00
Consensus
Medium confidence · 54.1%Sunderland
53.9%
book 33.7%
Draw
23.9%
book 28.5%
Nottingham Forest
22.3%
book 37.8%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 49.7% | 33.3% | 17.0% |
| poisson | 76.0% | 13.6% | 10.3% |
| elo | 52.6% | 23.1% | 24.3% |
| market | 33.7% | 28.5% | 37.8% |
- Sunderland wPPG 1.69 (home 2.00, W-L-W-W-D)
- Nottingham Forest wPPG 1.24 (away 1.50, L-W-L-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.67
- xG Sunderland 2.61 vs Nottingham Forest 0.83
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Sunderland 1515 vs Nottingham Forest 1441
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 2.75EV +48.1%Edge 20.2%Kelly 27.5%