Premier League
Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Saturday, May 02, 14:00
Consensus
Medium confidence · 56.6%Newcastle United
56.5%
book 43.2%
Draw
22.0%
book 25.8%
Brighton & Hove Albion
21.5%
book 31.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 55.0% | 31.3% | 13.7% |
| poisson | 75.0% | 11.4% | 13.6% |
| elo | 45.0% | 26.6% | 28.3% |
| market | 43.2% | 25.8% | 31.0% |
- Newcastle United wPPG 1.61 (home 2.17, L-W-D-L-W)
- Brighton & Hove Albion wPPG 1.48 (away 1.00, D-W-L-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.87
- xG Newcastle United 4.06 vs Brighton & Hove Albion 1.89
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Newcastle United 1530 vs Brighton & Hove Albion 1510
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 2.15EV +21.5%Edge 13.3%Kelly 18.7%