Premier League
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Chelsea
Tuesday, Apr 21, 19:00
Consensus
Low confidence · 44.3%Brighton & Hove Albion
46.4%
book 38.3%
Draw
25.1%
book 26.1%
Chelsea
28.5%
book 35.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 48.6% | 33.7% | 17.7% |
| poisson | 54.5% | 17.8% | 27.6% |
| elo | 42.5% | 27.9% | 29.7% |
| market | 38.3% | 26.1% | 35.7% |
- Brighton & Hove Albion wPPG 1.48 (home 2.00, D-W-L-L-W)
- Chelsea wPPG 1.29 (away 1.29, D-L-W-W-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.63
- xG Brighton & Hove Albion 2.46 vs Chelsea 1.73
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Brighton & Hove Albion 1510 vs Chelsea 1507
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 2.45EV +13.6%Edge 8.1%Kelly 9.4%