Premier League

Fulham vs Aston Villa

Saturday, Apr 25, 11:30

Consensus

Low confidence · 24.5%
Fulham
37.9%
book 35.4%
Draw
24.6%
book 26.6%
Aston Villa
37.5%
book 38.0%

Per-model

ModelHomeDrawAway
form19.7%34.8%45.6%
poisson61.8%14.6%23.6%
elo27.3%25.7%47.1%
market35.4%26.6%38.0%
  • Fulham wPPG 1.57 (home 1.50, L-W-W-L-W)
  • Aston Villa wPPG 2.71 (away 2.17, W-W-W-W-W)
  • Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.52
  • xG Fulham 3.59 vs Aston Villa 2.33
  • League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
  • Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
  • Elo Fulham 1514 vs Aston Villa 1669
  • Home-field bonus +60
  • Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices

Value bets

No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).

Predictions are statistical estimates, not financial advice. Bet responsibly.

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