Premier League
Chelsea vs Manchester United
Saturday, Apr 18, 19:00
Consensus
Medium confidence · 51.2%Chelsea
52.8%
book 45.9%
Draw
23.9%
book 25.1%
Manchester United
23.3%
book 29.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 45.8% | 34.7% | 19.5% |
| poisson | 70.0% | 14.4% | 15.6% |
| elo | 40.3% | 28.9% | 30.8% |
| market | 45.9% | 25.1% | 29.0% |
- Chelsea wPPG 1.29 (home 1.33, D-L-W-W-D)
- Manchester United wPPG 1.64 (away 1.33, L-W-L-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.53
- xG Chelsea 2.90 vs Manchester United 1.33
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Chelsea 1507 vs Manchester United 1521
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 2.05EV +8.1%Edge 6.8%Kelly 7.8%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.90 – 1.33 · No goal 1.5% confirmed XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| E. Fernández | Chelsea | M | 0.24 | 39.9% | 11.2% |
| C. Palmer | Chelsea | M | 0.24 | 39.9% | 11.2% |
| L. Delap | Chelsea | F | 0.21 | 36.6% | 10.0% |
| P. Neto | Chelsea | M | 0.17 | 31.3% | 8.2% |
| B. Mbeumo | Manchester United | M | 0.36 | 25.8% | 6.5% |
| B. Šeško | Manchester United | F | 0.28 | 20.2% | 5.0% |
| Casemiro | Manchester United | M | 0.24 | 17.7% | 4.3% |
| B. Fernandes | Manchester United | M | 0.24 | 17.7% | 4.3% |
| M. Gusto | Chelsea | D | 0.08 | 16.5% | 3.9% |
| J. Hato | Chelsea | D | 0.08 | 16.5% | 3.9% |
| A. Garnacho | Chelsea | F | 0.40 | 15.2% | 3.6% |
| M. Caicedo | Chelsea | M | 0.05 | 10.2% | 2.3% |
| Estêvão | Chelsea | M | 0.05 | 10.2% | 2.3% |
| M. Cunha | Manchester United | M | 0.11 | 8.8% | 2.0% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 92.6% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.