Premier League
Crystal Palace vs West Ham United
Monday, Apr 20, 19:00
Consensus
Low confidence · 33.3%Crystal Palace
41.1%
book 39.8%
Draw
28.6%
book 29.6%
West Ham United
30.2%
book 30.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 38.7% | 37.1% | 24.3% |
| poisson | 38.9% | 24.7% | 36.4% |
| elo | 49.2% | 24.7% | 26.1% |
| market | 39.8% | 29.6% | 30.6% |
- Crystal Palace wPPG 1.32 (home 0.40, L-W-W-W-L)
- West Ham United wPPG 0.97 (away 0.60, L-L-W-W-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.29
- xG Crystal Palace 1.25 vs West Ham United 1.20
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Crystal Palace 1456 vs West Ham United 1406
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.25 – 1.20 · No goal 8.6% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| Y. Pino | Crystal Palace | F | 0.21 | 27.0% | 11.0% |
| J. Bowen | West Ham United | M | 0.24 | 22.9% | 9.1% |
| B. Johnson | Crystal Palace | F | 0.15 | 19.9% | 7.8% |
| J. S. Larsen | Crystal Palace | F | 0.15 | 19.9% | 7.8% |
| T. Souček | West Ham United | M | 0.17 | 17.5% | 6.7% |
| M. Fernandes | West Ham United | M | 0.17 | 17.5% | 6.7% |
| D. Muñoz | Crystal Palace | M | 0.11 | 15.3% | 5.8% |
| P. Felipe | West Ham United | F | 0.15 | 15.2% | 5.8% |
| V. Castellanos | West Ham United | F | 0.15 | 15.2% | 5.8% |
| K. Walker-Peters | West Ham United | D | 0.08 | 8.8% | 3.2% |
| J. Lerma | Crystal Palace | M | 0.05 | 7.1% | 2.6% |
| W. Hughes | Crystal Palace | M | 0.05 | 7.1% | 2.6% |
| T. Mitchell | Crystal Palace | M | 0.05 | 7.1% | 2.6% |
| C. Summerville | West Ham United | M | 0.05 | 5.3% | 1.9% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 85.9% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.