Premier League
Manchester City vs Arsenal
Sunday, Apr 19, 15:30
Consensus
Medium confidence · 54.7%Manchester City
57.3%
book 51.5%
Draw
23.3%
book 25.8%
Arsenal
19.4%
book 22.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 38.6% | 37.1% | 24.3% |
| poisson | 78.7% | 11.9% | 9.4% |
| elo | 45.5% | 26.4% | 28.1% |
| market | 51.5% | 25.8% | 22.7% |
- Manchester City wPPG 2.55 (home 2.20, W-W-W-W-W)
- Arsenal wPPG 2.71 (away 2.67, W-W-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.29
- xG Manchester City 2.96 vs Arsenal 0.93
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Manchester City 1735 vs Arsenal 1712
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 1.85EV +6.1%Edge 5.8%Kelly 7.2%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.96 – 0.93 · No goal 2.0% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| E. Haaland | Manchester City | F | 0.53 | 66.3% | 25.7% |
| R. Cherki | Manchester City | M | 0.30 | 46.3% | 14.7% |
| A. Semenyo | Manchester City | M | 0.17 | 30.4% | 8.6% |
| N. O’Reilly | Manchester City | D | 0.14 | 25.8% | 7.1% |
| Rodri | Manchester City | M | 0.11 | 20.8% | 5.5% |
| G. Martinelli | Arsenal | F | 0.40 | 18.3% | 4.8% |
| V. Gyökeres | Arsenal | F | 0.40 | 18.3% | 4.8% |
| L. Trossard | Arsenal | F | 0.21 | 10.2% | 2.5% |
| K. Havertz | Arsenal | F | 0.21 | 10.2% | 2.5% |
| B. Silva | Manchester City | M | 0.05 | 9.8% | 2.4% |
| J. Doku | Manchester City | M | 0.05 | 9.8% | 2.4% |
| M. Zubimendi | Arsenal | M | 0.17 | 8.4% | 2.1% |
| D. Rice | Arsenal | M | 0.17 | 8.4% | 2.1% |
| Gabriel | Arsenal | D | 0.14 | 7.0% | 1.7% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 92.1% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.