Bundesliga
FC Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart
Sunday, Apr 19, 15:30
Consensus
Medium confidence · 60.7%FC Bayern München
62.4%
book 68.0%
Draw
19.1%
book 17.3%
VfB Stuttgart
18.4%
book 14.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 59.2% | 29.6% | 11.2% |
| poisson | 57.5% | 14.7% | 27.8% |
| elo | 58.5% | 20.3% | 21.2% |
| market | 68.0% | 17.3% | 14.7% |
- FC Bayern München wPPG 2.40 (home 2.60, W-L-W-W-W)
- VfB Stuttgart wPPG 1.83 (away 2.17, D-W-L-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.04
- xG FC Bayern München 3.83 vs VfB Stuttgart 2.80
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo FC Bayern München 1719 vs VfB Stuttgart 1603
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- away 6.50EV +19.8%Edge 3.8%Kelly 3.6%
- draw 5.50EV +5.3%Edge 1.8%Kelly 1.2%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 3.83 – 2.80 · No goal 0.1% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| N. Jackson | FC Bayern München | F | 0.28 | 58.2% | 12.4% |
| J. Leweling | VfB Stuttgart | M | 0.36 | 54.1% | 11.0% |
| L. Díaz | FC Bayern München | M | 0.24 | 53.0% | 10.7% |
| C. Führich | VfB Stuttgart | M | 0.24 | 40.0% | 7.2% |
| J. Stanišić | FC Bayern München | D | 0.14 | 36.7% | 6.5% |
| R. Guerreiro | FC Bayern München | D | 0.14 | 36.7% | 6.5% |
| E. Demirović | VfB Stuttgart | F | 0.21 | 36.6% | 6.5% |
| B. E. Khannouss | VfB Stuttgart | M | 0.17 | 31.3% | 5.3% |
| L. Goretzka | FC Bayern München | M | 0.11 | 30.0% | 5.1% |
| M. Mittelstädt | VfB Stuttgart | D | 0.14 | 26.6% | 4.4% |
| M. Kim | FC Bayern München | D | 0.08 | 23.4% | 3.8% |
| H. Itō | FC Bayern München | D | 0.08 | 23.4% | 3.8% |
| J. Kimmich | FC Bayern München | M | 0.05 | 14.7% | 2.2% |
| J. Musiala | FC Bayern München | M | 0.05 | 14.7% | 2.2% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 93.9% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.