Bundesliga
SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim
Sunday, Apr 19, 13:30
Consensus
High confidence · 74.5%SC Freiburg
74.9%
book 56.9%
Draw
15.7%
book 23.2%
1. FC Heidenheim
9.4%
book 20.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 70.0% | 24.3% | 5.7% |
| poisson | 92.0% | 5.7% | 2.3% |
| elo | 65.3% | 16.9% | 17.8% |
| market | 56.9% | 23.2% | 20.0% |
- SC Freiburg wPPG 1.90 (home 2.67, W-L-D-W-W)
- 1. FC Heidenheim wPPG 0.99 (away 0.75, W-L-L-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.57
- xG SC Freiburg 3.48 vs 1. FC Heidenheim 0.42
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo SC Freiburg 1574 vs 1. FC Heidenheim 1407
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 1.67EV +25.1%Edge 18.0%Kelly 37.4%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 3.48 – 0.42 · No goal 2.0% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| L. Holer | SC Freiburg | F | 0.28 | 51.6% | 17.2% |
| I. Matanović | SC Freiburg | F | 0.28 | 51.6% | 17.2% |
| J. Manzambi | SC Freiburg | M | 0.24 | 46.6% | 14.8% |
| D. Scherhant | SC Freiburg | F | 0.21 | 42.9% | 13.3% |
| M. Eggestein | SC Freiburg | M | 0.11 | 25.7% | 7.0% |
| L. Kubler | SC Freiburg | D | 0.08 | 19.9% | 5.2% |
| S. Schimmer | 1. FC Heidenheim | F | 0.46 | 15.7% | 4.0% |
| C. Irié | SC Freiburg | M | 0.05 | 12.4% | 3.1% |
| M. Ginter | SC Freiburg | D | 0.02 | 6.1% | 1.5% |
| B. Ogbus | SC Freiburg | D | 0.02 | 6.1% | 1.5% |
| C. Gunter | SC Freiburg | D | 0.02 | 6.1% | 1.5% |
| E. Dinkçi | 1. FC Heidenheim | F | 0.15 | 5.4% | 1.3% |
| M. Pieringer | 1. FC Heidenheim | F | 0.15 | 5.4% | 1.3% |
| J. Schöppner | 1. FC Heidenheim | M | 0.11 | 4.1% | 1.0% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 92.1% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.