Bundesliga
Borussia M'gladbach vs 1. FSV Mainz 05
Sunday, Apr 19, 17:30
Consensus
Medium confidence · 67.2%Borussia M'gladbach
65.6%
book 40.3%
Draw
20.6%
book 27.1%
1. FSV Mainz 05
13.8%
book 32.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 72.0% | 24.0% | 4.0% |
| poisson | 80.3% | 13.9% | 5.9% |
| elo | 70.4% | 15.0% | 14.6% |
| market | 40.3% | 27.1% | 32.7% |
- Borussia M'gladbach wPPG 1.82 (home 2.00, D-W-L-L-W)
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 wPPG 0.75 (away 0.40, L-D-W-L-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.80
- xG Borussia M'gladbach 2.24 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.40
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Borussia M'gladbach 1583 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 1369
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 2.35EV +54.1%Edge 25.3%Kelly 40.1%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.24 – 0.40 · No goal 7.2% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| H. Tabakovic | Borussia M'gladbach | F | 0.59 | 66.5% | 36.2% |
| K. Diks | Borussia M'gladbach | D | 0.14 | 23.5% | 8.9% |
| P. Sander | Borussia M'gladbach | M | 0.11 | 18.9% | 6.9% |
| N. Elvedi | Borussia M'gladbach | D | 0.08 | 14.5% | 5.2% |
| R. Reitz | Borussia M'gladbach | M | 0.05 | 8.9% | 3.1% |
| Y. Engelhardt | Borussia M'gladbach | M | 0.05 | 8.9% | 3.1% |
| J. Castrop | Borussia M'gladbach | M | 0.05 | 8.9% | 3.1% |
| F. Honorat | Borussia M'gladbach | M | 0.05 | 8.9% | 3.1% |
| W. Mohya | Borussia M'gladbach | M | 0.05 | 8.9% | 3.1% |
| S. Widmer | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | M | 0.17 | 7.0% | 2.4% |
| P. Nebel | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | F | 0.15 | 6.0% | 2.0% |
| P. Tietz | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | F | 0.15 | 6.0% | 2.0% |
| S. Becker | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | F | 0.15 | 6.0% | 2.0% |
| S. Kawasaki | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | M | 0.11 | 4.5% | 1.5% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 87.3% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.