Bundesliga
1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli
Saturday, Apr 25, 13:30
Consensus
Low confidence · 45.8%1. FC Heidenheim
46.8%
book 37.7%
Draw
27.9%
book 28.0%
FC St. Pauli
25.3%
book 34.2%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 52.3% | 32.3% | 15.3% |
| poisson | 48.4% | 27.6% | 24.0% |
| elo | 53.8% | 22.5% | 23.7% |
| market | 37.7% | 28.0% | 34.2% |
- 1. FC Heidenheim wPPG 0.99 (home 0.83, W-L-L-W-L)
- FC St. Pauli wPPG 0.56 (away 0.67, L-L-L-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.77
- xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.21 vs FC St. Pauli 0.74
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo 1. FC Heidenheim 1407 vs FC St. Pauli 1325
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 2.45EV +14.8%Edge 9.1%Kelly 10.2%