Bundesliga
Hamburger SV vs TSG Hoffenheim
Saturday, Apr 25, 16:30
Consensus
Low confidence · 43.3%Hamburger SV
47.1%
book 24.1%
Draw
21.9%
book 23.5%
TSG Hoffenheim
31.0%
book 52.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 27.8% | 38.9% | 33.3% |
| poisson | 86.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% |
| elo | 31.3% | 29.4% | 39.3% |
| market | 24.1% | 23.5% | 52.3% |
- Hamburger SV wPPG 1.34 (home 2.00, D-W-L-L-W)
- TSG Hoffenheim wPPG 1.86 (away 1.40, L-W-W-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.11
- xG Hamburger SV 6.78 vs TSG Hoffenheim 2.56
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Hamburger SV 1500 vs TSG Hoffenheim 1600
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 3.90EV +83.7%Edge 23.0%Kelly 28.9%