Bundesliga
RB Leipzig vs 1. FC Union Berlin
Friday, Apr 24, 18:30
Consensus
Medium confidence · 63.8%RB Leipzig
64.0%
book 68.7%
Draw
22.2%
book 19.7%
1. FC Union Berlin
13.8%
book 11.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 63.6% | 27.6% | 8.8% |
| poisson | 60.2% | 23.0% | 16.9% |
| elo | 59.8% | 19.7% | 20.6% |
| market | 68.7% | 19.7% | 11.7% |
- RB Leipzig wPPG 2.01 (home 2.60, D-D-W-W-W)
- 1. FC Union Berlin wPPG 1.48 (away 1.50, D-L-W-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.24
- xG RB Leipzig 1.57 vs 1. FC Union Berlin 0.67
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo RB Leipzig 1641 vs 1. FC Union Berlin 1515
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- away 8.00EV +10.1%Edge 2.1%Kelly 1.4%
- draw 4.75EV +5.6%Edge 2.6%Kelly 1.5%