LaLiga
Atlético Madrid vs Athletic Club
Saturday, Apr 25, 19:00
Consensus
Medium confidence · 64.0%Atlético Madrid
61.9%
book 37.5%
Draw
22.8%
book 28.4%
Athletic Club
15.3%
book 34.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 68.3% | 25.2% | 6.4% |
| poisson | 75.9% | 18.1% | 6.0% |
| elo | 68.8% | 15.1% | 16.1% |
| market | 37.5% | 28.4% | 34.1% |
- Atlético Madrid wPPG 2.43 (home 2.25, W-W-W-W-D)
- Athletic Club wPPG 1.50 (away 1.40, W-L-D-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.48
- xG Atlético Madrid 1.83 vs Athletic Club 0.30
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Atlético Madrid 1662 vs Athletic Club 1470
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 2.50EV +54.8%Edge 24.4%Kelly 36.6%