LaLiga

Villarreal vs Celta Vigo

Sunday, Apr 26, 19:00

Consensus

Medium confidence · 69.8%
Villarreal
69.7%
book 51.9%
Draw
17.3%
book 25.9%
Celta Vigo
13.0%
book 22.2%

Per-model

ModelHomeDrawAway
form63.0%27.9%9.1%
poisson88.6%6.1%5.3%
elo62.4%18.4%19.2%
market51.9%25.9%22.2%
  • Villarreal wPPG 2.20 (home 2.25, W-W-L-W-W)
  • Celta Vigo wPPG 1.38 (away 1.67, L-L-W-W-L)
  • Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.21
  • xG Villarreal 5.43 vs Celta Vigo 1.67
  • League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
  • Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
  • Elo Villarreal 1649 vs Celta Vigo 1504
  • Home-field bonus +60
  • Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices

Value bets

  • home 1.80
    EV +25.4%
    Edge 17.8%
    Kelly 31.7%

Predictions are statistical estimates, not financial advice. Bet responsibly.

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