LaLiga

Valencia vs Girona FC

Saturday, Apr 25, 16:30

Consensus

Low confidence · 22.3%
Valencia
38.7%
book 45.3%
Draw
29.5%
book 27.3%
Girona FC
31.8%
book 27.3%

Per-model

ModelHomeDrawAway
form33.0%39.0%28.0%
poisson33.8%26.3%39.9%
elo40.3%28.9%30.8%
market45.3%27.3%27.3%
  • Valencia wPPG 0.90 (home 1.00, L-L-D-L-W)
  • Girona FC wPPG 1.13 (away 1.00, D-L-D-D-W)
  • Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.10
  • xG Valencia 1.04 vs Girona FC 1.17
  • League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
  • Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
  • Elo Valencia 1428 vs Girona FC 1442
  • Home-field bonus +60
  • Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices

Value bets

  • away 3.40
    EV +8.2%
    Edge 4.5%
    Kelly 3.4%

Predictions are statistical estimates, not financial advice. Bet responsibly.

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