LaLiga
Athletic Club vs Osasuna
Tuesday, Apr 21, 17:00
Consensus
Low confidence · 35.3%Athletic Club
45.1%
book 53.1%
Draw
31.5%
book 27.3%
Osasuna
23.4%
book 19.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 53.3% | 32.0% | 14.8% |
| poisson | 28.6% | 38.4% | 33.0% |
| elo | 50.7% | 24.0% | 25.3% |
| market | 53.1% | 27.3% | 19.6% |
- Athletic Club wPPG 1.50 (home 1.40, W-L-D-W-L)
- Osasuna wPPG 0.83 (away 0.71, L-W-L-L-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.80
- xG Athletic Club 0.60 vs Osasuna 0.67
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Athletic Club 1470 vs Osasuna 1409
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- away 4.75EV +11.2%Edge 3.8%Kelly 3.0%
- draw 3.40EV +7.0%Edge 4.1%Kelly 2.9%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 0.60 – 0.67 · No goal 28.3% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| A. Budimir | Osasuna | F | 0.34 | 20.7% | 12.4% |
| V. Muñoz | Osasuna | F | 0.28 | 17.2% | 10.1% |
| G. Guruzeta | Athletic Club | F | 0.21 | 15.6% | 9.1% |
| N. Williams | Athletic Club | M | 0.17 | 13.1% | 7.5% |
| M. Jauregizar | Athletic Club | M | 0.11 | 8.6% | 4.8% |
| R. Garcia | Osasuna | M | 0.11 | 7.4% | 4.1% |
| I. R. d. Galarreta | Athletic Club | M | 0.05 | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| I. Williams | Athletic Club | M | 0.05 | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| O. Sancet | Athletic Club | M | 0.05 | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| J. Moncayola | Osasuna | M | 0.05 | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| I. Muñoz | Osasuna | M | 0.05 | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| A. Oroz | Osasuna | M | 0.05 | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Í. Lekue | Athletic Club | D | 0.02 | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| D. Vivian | Athletic Club | D | 0.02 | 1.9% | 1.0% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 67.4% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.