LaLiga
FC Barcelona vs Celta Vigo
Wednesday, Apr 22, 19:30
Consensus
High confidence · 82.4%FC Barcelona
84.2%
book 75.9%
Draw
10.4%
book 14.8%
Celta Vigo
5.4%
book 9.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 71.9% | 24.0% | 4.1% |
| poisson | 95.7% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| elo | 72.9% | 15.0% | 12.1% |
| market | 75.9% | 14.8% | 9.3% |
- FC Barcelona wPPG 2.85 (home 3.00, W-W-W-W-W)
- Celta Vigo wPPG 1.38 (away 1.67, L-L-W-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.79
- xG FC Barcelona 6.52 vs Celta Vigo 1.25
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo FC Barcelona 1757 vs Celta Vigo 1504
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 6.52 – 1.25 · No goal 0.0% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| F. Torres | FC Barcelona | F | 0.46 | 91.6% | 29.9% |
| L. Yamal | FC Barcelona | M | 0.30 | 79.9% | 19.4% |
| F. López | FC Barcelona | M | 0.24 | 71.9% | 15.3% |
| W. Swedberg | Celta Vigo | M | 0.30 | 31.5% | 4.6% |
| P. Durán | Celta Vigo | F | 0.21 | 23.5% | 3.2% |
| Pedri | FC Barcelona | M | 0.05 | 23.5% | 3.2% |
| Gavi | FC Barcelona | M | 0.05 | 23.5% | 3.2% |
| S. Carreira | Celta Vigo | M | 0.11 | 13.2% | 1.7% |
| J. Cancelo | FC Barcelona | D | 0.02 | 12.0% | 1.6% |
| R. Araújo | FC Barcelona | D | 0.02 | 12.0% | 1.6% |
| P. Cubarsí | FC Barcelona | D | 0.02 | 12.0% | 1.6% |
| A. Balde | FC Barcelona | D | 0.02 | 12.0% | 1.6% |
| E. García | FC Barcelona | D | 0.02 | 12.0% | 1.6% |
| M. Alonso | Celta Vigo | D | 0.08 | 10.1% | 1.3% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 94.0% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.