LaLiga
Levante UD vs Sevilla
Thursday, Apr 23, 17:00
Consensus
Medium confidence · 56.3%Levante UD
19.0%
book 37.2%
Draw
24.6%
book 29.0%
Sevilla
56.5%
book 33.8%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 10.9% | 29.4% | 59.7% |
| poisson | 6.0% | 13.2% | 80.9% |
| elo | 29.7% | 27.9% | 42.3% |
| market | 37.2% | 29.0% | 33.8% |
- Levante UD wPPG 0.98 (home 0.00, D-W-L-L-D)
- Sevilla wPPG 1.65 (away 1.50, W-L-W-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -1.06
- xG Levante UD 0.43 vs Sevilla 2.33
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Levante UD 1401 vs Sevilla 1522
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- away 2.75EV +55.2%Edge 22.7%Kelly 31.6%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 0.43 – 2.33 · No goal 6.3% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| I. Romero | Sevilla | F | 0.28 | 41.2% | 16.9% |
| A. Adams | Sevilla | F | 0.28 | 41.2% | 16.9% |
| R. Vargas | Sevilla | M | 0.24 | 36.8% | 14.6% |
| N. Gudelj | Sevilla | M | 0.11 | 19.5% | 6.9% |
| K. Salas | Sevilla | D | 0.08 | 15.0% | 5.2% |
| C. Espí | Levante UD | F | 0.34 | 14.1% | 4.8% |
| J. Sánchez | Sevilla | M | 0.05 | 9.2% | 3.1% |
| Oso | Sevilla | M | 0.05 | 9.2% | 3.1% |
| L. Agoumé | Sevilla | M | 0.05 | 9.2% | 3.1% |
| M. Bueno | Sevilla | M | 0.05 | 9.2% | 3.1% |
| I. Romero | Levante UD | F | 0.21 | 9.1% | 3.0% |
| J. A. Olasagasti | Levante UD | M | 0.11 | 4.9% | 1.6% |
| A. Castrin | Sevilla | D | 0.02 | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| M. Sánchez | Levante UD | D | 0.08 | 3.7% | 1.2% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 88.1% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.