LaLiga
Mallorca vs Valencia
Tuesday, Apr 21, 17:00
Consensus
Low confidence · 46.3%Mallorca
46.9%
book 37.0%
Draw
29.7%
book 29.9%
Valencia
23.4%
book 33.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 49.7% | 33.3% | 17.0% |
| poisson | 53.4% | 29.6% | 17.0% |
| elo | 49.8% | 24.4% | 25.8% |
| market | 37.0% | 29.9% | 33.1% |
- Mallorca wPPG 1.34 (home 2.00, D-L-W-L-W)
- Valencia wPPG 0.90 (away 1.33, L-L-D-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.67
- xG Mallorca 1.16 vs Valencia 0.50
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Mallorca 1483 vs Valencia 1428
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 2.50EV +17.3%Edge 9.9%Kelly 11.5%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.16 – 0.50 · No goal 19.0% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| V. Muriqi | Mallorca | F | 0.46 | 40.9% | 24.1% |
| S. Costa | Mallorca | M | 0.17 | 18.0% | 9.1% |
| L. Beltrán | Valencia | F | 0.28 | 12.8% | 6.3% |
| P. Maffeo | Mallorca | D | 0.08 | 9.1% | 4.4% |
| L. Rioja | Valencia | M | 0.17 | 8.3% | 4.0% |
| L. Ramazani | Valencia | F | 0.15 | 7.2% | 3.4% |
| U. Sadiq | Valencia | F | 0.15 | 7.2% | 3.4% |
| O. Mascarell | Mallorca | M | 0.05 | 5.5% | 2.6% |
| P. Torre | Mallorca | M | 0.05 | 5.5% | 2.6% |
| S. Darder | Mallorca | M | 0.05 | 5.5% | 2.6% |
| M. Morlanes | Mallorca | M | 0.05 | 5.5% | 2.6% |
| J. Virgili | Mallorca | M | 0.05 | 5.5% | 2.6% |
| J. Vázquez | Valencia | D | 0.08 | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| D. López | Mallorca | D | 0.02 | 2.7% | 1.3% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 76.1% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.