LaLiga
Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés
Tuesday, Apr 21, 19:30
Consensus
Low confidence · 47.3%Real Madrid
57.2%
book 77.1%
Draw
22.7%
book 15.7%
Deportivo Alavés
20.0%
book 7.2%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 44.6% | 35.1% | 20.3% |
| poisson | 44.0% | 21.0% | 35.0% |
| elo | 50.7% | 24.0% | 25.3% |
| market | 77.1% | 15.7% | 7.2% |
- Real Madrid wPPG 1.84 (home 1.50, W-L-L-W-W)
- Deportivo Alavés wPPG 1.29 (away 1.00, L-W-D-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.49
- xG Real Madrid 1.74 vs Deportivo Alavés 1.53
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Real Madrid 1579 vs Deportivo Alavés 1519
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- away 13.00EV +160.5%Edge 12.8%Kelly 13.4%
- draw 6.00EV +36.4%Edge 7.1%Kelly 7.3%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.74 – 1.53 · No goal 3.8% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| K. Mbappé | Real Madrid | F | 0.71 | 54.0% | 21.5% |
| T. Martínez | Deportivo Alavés | F | 0.34 | 44.6% | 16.4% |
| Vinícius Jr. | Real Madrid | F | 0.28 | 25.9% | 8.3% |
| I. Diabaté | Deportivo Alavés | F | 0.15 | 23.1% | 7.3% |
| P. Ibáñez | Deportivo Alavés | M | 0.11 | 17.9% | 5.5% |
| J. Bellingham | Real Madrid | M | 0.17 | 17.4% | 5.3% |
| F. Valverde | Real Madrid | M | 0.11 | 11.6% | 3.4% |
| E. Camavinga | Real Madrid | M | 0.11 | 11.6% | 3.4% |
| F. Garcia | Real Madrid | D | 0.08 | 8.8% | 2.5% |
| Á. Pérez | Deportivo Alavés | M | 0.05 | 8.4% | 2.4% |
| J. Guridi | Deportivo Alavés | M | 0.05 | 8.4% | 2.4% |
| A. Blanco | Deportivo Alavés | M | 0.05 | 8.4% | 2.4% |
| C. Aleñá | Deportivo Alavés | M | 0.05 | 8.4% | 2.4% |
| B. Díaz | Real Madrid | M | 0.05 | 5.3% | 1.5% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 90.4% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.