LaLiga
Girona FC vs Real Betis
Tuesday, Apr 21, 19:30
Consensus
Low confidence · 49.6%Girona FC
25.4%
book 36.3%
Draw
25.4%
book 28.1%
Real Betis
49.2%
book 35.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 13.0% | 30.8% | 56.2% |
| poisson | 23.6% | 19.7% | 56.6% |
| elo | 25.0% | 23.7% | 51.3% |
| market | 36.3% | 28.1% | 35.6% |
- Girona FC wPPG 1.13 (home 1.60, D-L-D-D-W)
- Real Betis wPPG 2.22 (away 2.00, W-W-W-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.92
- xG Girona FC 1.19 vs Real Betis 1.98
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Girona FC 1442 vs Real Betis 1627
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- away 2.60EV +27.8%Edge 13.5%Kelly 17.4%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.19 – 1.98 · No goal 4.2% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| C. Hernández | Real Betis | F | 0.46 | 47.3% | 18.2% |
| R. Riquelme | Real Betis | M | 0.30 | 34.0% | 11.8% |
| A. Ounahi | Girona FC | M | 0.24 | 28.9% | 9.7% |
| P. Fornals | Real Betis | M | 0.24 | 28.0% | 9.3% |
| V. Tsygankov | Girona FC | M | 0.17 | 22.2% | 7.1% |
| A. Witsel | Girona FC | M | 0.11 | 14.9% | 4.6% |
| S. Altimira | Real Betis | M | 0.11 | 14.4% | 4.4% |
| A. Ezzalzouli | Real Betis | M | 0.11 | 14.4% | 4.4% |
| A. Martínez | Girona FC | D | 0.08 | 11.4% | 3.4% |
| D. Llorente | Real Betis | D | 0.08 | 11.0% | 3.3% |
| T. Lemar | Girona FC | M | 0.05 | 6.9% | 2.0% |
| I. Martín | Girona FC | M | 0.05 | 6.9% | 2.0% |
| C. Echeverri | Girona FC | M | 0.05 | 6.9% | 2.0% |
| S. Amrabat | Real Betis | M | 0.05 | 6.7% | 2.0% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 90.1% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.