LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
Thursday, Apr 23, 18:00
Consensus
Low confidence · 41.1%Rayo Vallecano
45.7%
book 43.9%
Draw
32.5%
book 29.7%
Espanyol
21.9%
book 26.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 37.2% | 37.6% | 25.2% |
| poisson | 55.8% | 32.0% | 12.2% |
| elo | 38.8% | 29.6% | 31.6% |
| market | 43.9% | 29.7% | 26.3% |
- Rayo Vallecano wPPG 1.22 (home 1.50, D-L-D-W-L)
- Espanyol wPPG 1.44 (away 1.40, W-L-D-D-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.24
- xG Rayo Vallecano 1.09 vs Espanyol 0.33
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Rayo Vallecano 1464 vs Espanyol 1488
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.09 – 0.33 · No goal 24.2% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| I. Palazón | Rayo Vallecano | M | 0.17 | 19.7% | 11.0% |
| R. Nteka | Rayo Vallecano | F | 0.15 | 17.2% | 9.4% |
| Pacha | Rayo Vallecano | D | 0.14 | 16.5% | 9.1% |
| K. García | Espanyol | F | 0.46 | 13.2% | 7.1% |
| P. Díaz | Rayo Vallecano | M | 0.11 | 13.2% | 7.1% |
| G. Gumbau | Rayo Vallecano | M | 0.11 | 13.2% | 7.1% |
| Ó. Valentín | Rayo Vallecano | M | 0.05 | 6.1% | 3.1% |
| I. Akhomach | Rayo Vallecano | M | 0.05 | 6.1% | 3.1% |
| C. Ngonge | Espanyol | F | 0.15 | 4.5% | 2.3% |
| P. Lozano | Espanyol | M | 0.11 | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| A. Rațiu | Rayo Vallecano | D | 0.02 | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| I. Balliu | Rayo Vallecano | D | 0.02 | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| J. Chavarría | Rayo Vallecano | D | 0.02 | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| L. Cabrera | Espanyol | D | 0.08 | 2.5% | 1.3% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 71.3% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.