Ligue 1
RC Strasbourg vs Stade Rennais
Sunday, Apr 19, 15:15
Consensus
Medium confidence · 50.4%RC Strasbourg
50.1%
book 34.5%
Draw
24.8%
book 25.6%
Stade Rennais
25.1%
book 39.9%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 51.9% | 32.5% | 15.6% |
| poisson | 64.8% | 18.6% | 16.6% |
| elo | 49.6% | 24.5% | 25.9% |
| market | 34.5% | 25.6% | 39.9% |
- RC Strasbourg wPPG 1.92 (home 2.17, W-W-L-W-L)
- Stade Rennais wPPG 1.44 (away 1.40, D-W-D-D-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.75
- xG RC Strasbourg 2.03 vs Stade Rennais 0.89
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo RC Strasbourg 1576 vs Stade Rennais 1523
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 2.75EV +37.8%Edge 15.6%Kelly 21.6%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.03 – 0.89 · No goal 5.4% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| J. Enciso | RC Strasbourg | M | 0.36 | 41.6% | 16.4% |
| E. Emegha | RC Strasbourg | F | 0.34 | 39.4% | 15.2% |
| M. Godo | RC Strasbourg | M | 0.30 | 35.9% | 13.6% |
| E. Lepaul | Stade Rennais | F | 0.59 | 24.3% | 8.5% |
| B. Embolo | Stade Rennais | F | 0.40 | 17.2% | 5.8% |
| S. E. Mourabet | RC Strasbourg | M | 0.11 | 15.4% | 5.1% |
| L. Blas | Stade Rennais | F | 0.28 | 12.2% | 4.0% |
| I. Doukouré | RC Strasbourg | D | 0.08 | 11.7% | 3.8% |
| M. Tamari | Stade Rennais | F | 0.21 | 9.6% | 3.1% |
| V. Barco | RC Strasbourg | M | 0.05 | 7.1% | 2.3% |
| G. Yassine | RC Strasbourg | M | 0.05 | 7.1% | 2.3% |
| A. A. Boudlal | Stade Rennais | D | 0.14 | 6.6% | 2.1% |
| M. Camara | Stade Rennais | M | 0.11 | 5.2% | 1.6% |
| G. Doué | RC Strasbourg | D | 0.02 | 3.5% | 1.1% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 88.9% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.