Ligue 1
Angers vs Le Havre
Saturday, Apr 18, 17:00
Consensus
Low confidence · 40.1%Angers
43.4%
book 29.0%
Draw
31.8%
book 30.8%
Le Havre
24.8%
book 40.2%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 35.8% | 38.0% | 26.2% |
| poisson | 67.2% | 24.1% | 8.7% |
| elo | 34.9% | 31.5% | 33.5% |
| market | 29.0% | 30.8% | 40.2% |
- Angers wPPG 0.85 (home 1.60, D-D-L-L-L)
- Le Havre wPPG 1.17 (away 1.00, L-W-L-D-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.20
- xG Angers 1.46 vs Le Havre 0.32
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Angers 1398 vs Le Havre 1451
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 3.30EV +43.3%Edge 14.4%Kelly 18.8%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.46 – 0.32 · No goal 16.8% confirmed XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| P. Peter | Angers | F | 0.34 | 41.4% | 23.4% |
| A. Sbai | Angers | F | 0.15 | 21.1% | 10.4% |
| O. Camara | Angers | D | 0.08 | 12.5% | 5.8% |
| P. Capelle | Angers | M | 0.05 | 7.6% | 3.5% |
| B. Van den Boomen | Angers | M | 0.05 | 7.6% | 3.5% |
| H. Belkebla | Angers | M | 0.05 | 7.6% | 3.5% |
| I. Soumaré | Le Havre | F | 0.34 | 7.5% | 3.4% |
| L. Machine | Angers | F | 0.15 | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| G. Koyalipou | Angers | F | 0.15 | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| F. Doucouré | Le Havre | M | 0.17 | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| R. Ndiaye | Le Havre | M | 0.17 | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| L. Raolisoa | Angers | D | 0.02 | 3.7% | 1.7% |
| M. Louer | Angers | D | 0.02 | 3.7% | 1.7% |
| J. Lefort | Angers | D | 0.02 | 3.7% | 1.7% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 78.2% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.