Ligue 1
AS Monaco vs Auxerre
Sunday, Apr 19, 13:00
Consensus
Medium confidence · 59.5%AS Monaco
59.2%
book 61.0%
Draw
24.8%
book 22.5%
Auxerre
16.0%
book 16.5%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 55.8% | 31.0% | 13.2% |
| poisson | 61.4% | 24.8% | 13.9% |
| elo | 54.3% | 22.2% | 23.4% |
| market | 61.0% | 22.5% | 16.5% |
- AS Monaco wPPG 1.39 (home 1.50, W-L-W-L-L)
- Auxerre wPPG 0.88 (away 0.20, W-L-L-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.90
- xG AS Monaco 1.43 vs Auxerre 0.50
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo AS Monaco 1464 vs Auxerre 1378
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- draw 4.20EV +4.0%Edge 2.3%Kelly 1.3%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.43 – 0.50 · No goal 14.4% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| F. Balogun | AS Monaco | F | 0.46 | 48.6% | 27.7% |
| M. Coulibaly | AS Monaco | M | 0.17 | 22.3% | 10.5% |
| L. Sinayoko | Auxerre | F | 0.34 | 17.4% | 7.9% |
| M. Akliouche | AS Monaco | M | 0.11 | 15.0% | 6.7% |
| D. Namaso | Auxerre | F | 0.28 | 14.4% | 6.5% |
| D. Zakaria | AS Monaco | M | 0.05 | 6.9% | 3.0% |
| A. Bamba | AS Monaco | M | 0.05 | 6.9% | 3.0% |
| S. Adingra | AS Monaco | M | 0.05 | 6.9% | 3.0% |
| T. Kehrer | AS Monaco | D | 0.02 | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| W. Faes | AS Monaco | D | 0.02 | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| J. Teze | AS Monaco | D | 0.02 | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| C. Mawissa | AS Monaco | D | 0.02 | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| K. Danois | Auxerre | M | 0.05 | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| E. Owusu | Auxerre | M | 0.05 | 2.8% | 1.2% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 80.4% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.