Ligue 1
Nantes vs Stade Brestois
Sunday, Apr 19, 15:15
Consensus
Low confidence · 35.1%Nantes
41.9%
book 40.5%
Draw
27.5%
book 28.8%
Stade Brestois
30.6%
book 30.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 38.3% | 37.2% | 24.5% |
| poisson | 45.6% | 20.3% | 34.1% |
| elo | 40.6% | 28.7% | 30.6% |
| market | 40.5% | 28.8% | 30.7% |
- Nantes wPPG 0.82 (home 0.80, L-L-W-L-D)
- Stade Brestois wPPG 0.87 (away 0.80, D-L-L-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.28
- xG Nantes 1.88 vs Stade Brestois 1.60
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Nantes 1396 vs Stade Brestois 1407
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.88 – 1.60 · No goal 3.1% predicted XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| M. Abline | Nantes | F | 0.28 | 49.9% | 18.1% |
| R. Del Castillo | Stade Brestois | M | 0.30 | 33.9% | 10.9% |
| R. L. Lascary | Stade Brestois | F | 0.28 | 31.6% | 9.9% |
| I. Ganago | Nantes | F | 0.15 | 31.4% | 9.9% |
| L. Ajorque | Stade Brestois | F | 0.21 | 25.4% | 7.7% |
| J. Chotard | Stade Brestois | M | 0.11 | 14.4% | 4.1% |
| J. D. Ebimbe | Stade Brestois | M | 0.11 | 14.4% | 4.1% |
| D. Machado | Nantes | M | 0.05 | 11.8% | 3.3% |
| F. Coquelin | Nantes | M | 0.05 | 11.8% | 3.3% |
| D. Tabibou | Nantes | M | 0.05 | 11.8% | 3.3% |
| I. Sissoko | Nantes | M | 0.05 | 11.8% | 3.3% |
| J. Lepenant | Nantes | M | 0.05 | 11.8% | 3.3% |
| H. Magnetti | Stade Brestois | M | 0.05 | 6.7% | 1.8% |
| F. Guilbert | Nantes | D | 0.02 | 5.9% | 1.6% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 91.1% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.