Ligue 1
Lille vs Nice
Saturday, Apr 18, 19:05
Consensus
High confidence · 80.4%Lille
82.0%
book 62.3%
Draw
12.0%
book 21.2%
Nice
6.0%
book 16.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 73.3% | 24.0% | 2.7% |
| poisson | 97.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| elo | 71.1% | 15.0% | 13.9% |
| market | 62.3% | 21.2% | 16.6% |
- Lille wPPG 1.96 (home 3.00, W-L-L-W-W)
- Nice wPPG 0.97 (away 0.60, W-W-L-L-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 2.06
- xG Lille 4.35 vs Nice 0.27
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Lille 1593 vs Nice 1370
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 1.53EV +25.5%Edge 19.7%Kelly 48.0%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 4.35 – 0.27 · No goal 1.0% confirmed XI
Per-player goal expectancy combines club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team aggregates (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are shrunk to a position prior, then rescaled per side so they match the team xG above.
| B. André | Lille | M | 0.17 | 49.7% | 13.9% |
| F. Correia | Lille | M | 0.17 | 49.7% | 13.9% |
| M. Fernandez | Lille | F | 0.15 | 44.6% | 11.9% |
| N. Mukau | Lille | M | 0.11 | 35.7% | 8.9% |
| H. A. Haraldsson | Lille | M | 0.11 | 35.7% | 8.9% |
| A. Mandi | Lille | D | 0.08 | 28.1% | 6.7% |
| O. Giroud | Lille | F | 0.28 | 18.8% | 4.2% |
| A. Bouaddi | Lille | M | 0.05 | 17.8% | 4.0% |
| G. Perrin | Lille | F | 0.15 | 10.7% | 2.3% |
| O. Sahraoui | Lille | F | 0.15 | 10.7% | 2.3% |
| N. Edjouma | Lille | F | 0.15 | 10.7% | 2.3% |
| T. Meunier | Lille | D | 0.02 | 9.0% | 1.9% |
| C. Mbemba | Lille | D | 0.02 | 9.0% | 1.9% |
| R. Perraud | Lille | D | 0.02 | 9.0% | 1.9% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 93.1% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.