Ligue 1
Angers vs Paris Saint-Germain
Saturday, Apr 25, 17:00
Consensus
Medium confidence · 51.5%Angers
16.3%
book 7.9%
Draw
24.1%
book 16.4%
Paris Saint-Germain
59.6%
book 75.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 11.7% | 29.9% | 58.4% |
| poisson | 30.3% | 31.1% | 38.6% |
| elo | 19.1% | 18.3% | 62.6% |
| market | 7.9% | 16.4% | 75.7% |
- Angers wPPG 0.85 (home 1.60, D-D-L-L-L)
- Paris Saint-Germain wPPG 2.17 (away 1.75, W-L-W-D-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -1.01
- xG Angers 0.78 vs Paris Saint-Germain 0.93
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Angers 1398 vs Paris Saint-Germain 1664
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 12.00EV +95.4%Edge 8.4%Kelly 8.7%
- draw 5.75EV +38.7%Edge 7.7%Kelly 8.1%