Ligue 1
Paris FC vs Lille
Sunday, Apr 26, 15:15
Consensus
Low confidence · 26.7%Paris FC
31.9%
book 26.1%
Draw
27.6%
book 26.9%
Lille
40.5%
book 47.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 21.9% | 35.9% | 42.2% |
| poisson | 48.4% | 22.2% | 29.4% |
| elo | 29.1% | 27.3% | 43.7% |
| market | 26.1% | 26.9% | 47.0% |
- Paris FC wPPG 1.26 (home 0.80, W-L-D-W-L)
- Lille wPPG 1.96 (away 1.50, W-L-L-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.41
- xG Paris FC 1.62 vs Lille 1.20
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Paris FC 1462 vs Lille 1593
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 3.60EV +14.8%Edge 5.8%Kelly 5.7%