Ligue 1
Lorient vs RC Strasbourg
Sunday, Apr 26, 13:00
Consensus
Low confidence · 25.4%Lorient
37.5%
book 33.4%
Draw
29.5%
book 28.4%
RC Strasbourg
33.0%
book 38.2%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 25.8% | 37.8% | 36.4% |
| poisson | 55.9% | 24.7% | 19.4% |
| elo | 28.5% | 26.7% | 44.8% |
| market | 33.4% | 28.4% | 38.2% |
- Lorient wPPG 1.09 (home 1.80, D-W-L-D-L)
- RC Strasbourg wPPG 1.92 (away 1.50, W-W-L-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.22
- xG Lorient 1.43 vs RC Strasbourg 0.70
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Lorient 1437 vs RC Strasbourg 1576
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 2.80EV +5.0%Edge 4.1%Kelly 2.8%