MLB
Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles
Saturday, Apr 18, 22:10
Consensus
Medium confidence · 55.9%Cleveland Guardians
45.8%
book 56.3%
Baltimore Orioles
54.2%
book 43.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| form | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| poisson | 36.1% | 63.9% |
| elo | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| market | 56.3% | 43.7% |
- Cleveland Guardians wPPG 1.13 (home 1.50, L-W-W-L-L)
- Baltimore Orioles wPPG 1.27 (away 1.40, D-W-L-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.22
- xG Cleveland Guardians 3.00 vs Baltimore Orioles 3.83
- League avg: home 4.60 / away 4.40
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Cleveland Guardians 1465 vs Baltimore Orioles 1535
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker Money line prices
Value bets
- away 2.20EV +19.2%Edge 10.4%Kelly 16.0%