MLB
Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals
Saturday, Apr 18, 23:10
Consensus
Medium confidence · 51.8%Houston Astros
49.0%
book 56.3%
St. Louis Cardinals
51.0%
book 43.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| form | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| poisson | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| elo | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| market | 56.3% | 43.7% |
- Houston Astros wPPG 0.92 (home 1.00, L-W-W-W-L)
- St. Louis Cardinals wPPG 1.37 (away 1.00, L-W-W-D-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.18
- xG Houston Astros 2.25 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.28
- League avg: home 4.60 / away 4.40
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Houston Astros 1448 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1569
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker Money line prices
Value bets
- away 2.20EV +12.3%Edge 7.3%Kelly 10.3%