MLB
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati Reds
Monday, Apr 20, 22:40
Consensus
High confidence · 86.4%Tampa Bay Rays
92.0%
Cincinnati Reds
8.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| form | 86.9% | 13.1% |
| poisson | 97.3% | 2.7% |
| elo | 74.5% | 25.5% |
- Tampa Bay Rays wPPG 1.08 (home 2.25, W-W-L-L-L)
- Cincinnati Reds wPPG 0.37 (away 0.50, L-L-L-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.18
- xG Tampa Bay Rays 5.54 vs Cincinnati Reds 1.20
- League avg: home 4.60 / away 4.40
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Tampa Bay Rays 1382 vs Cincinnati Reds 1256
- Home-field bonus +60
Value bets
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).