UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
Thursday, May 07, 19:00
Consensus
High confidence · 76.7%Aston Villa
77.5%
Draw
15.4%
Nottingham Forest
7.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 70.6% | 24.0% | 5.4% |
| poisson | 83.0% | 11.3% | 5.6% |
| elo | 71.4% | 15.0% | 13.6% |
- Aston Villa wPPG 2.71 (home 3.00, W-W-W-W-W)
- Nottingham Forest wPPG 1.24 (away 1.50, L-W-L-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.61
- xG Aston Villa 2.61 vs Nottingham Forest 0.50
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Aston Villa 1669 vs Nottingham Forest 1441
- Home-field bonus +60
Value bets
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).