UEFA Champions League
Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal
Wednesday, Apr 29, 19:00
Consensus
Low confidence · 21.5%Atlético Madrid
36.0%
book 33.1%
Draw
29.2%
book 28.9%
Arsenal
34.7%
book 38.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 26.4% | 38.2% | 35.4% |
| poisson | 46.7% | 23.0% | 30.3% |
| elo | 35.4% | 31.3% | 33.3% |
| market | 33.1% | 28.9% | 38.1% |
- Atlético Madrid wPPG 2.43 (home 2.25, W-W-W-W-D)
- Arsenal wPPG 2.71 (away 2.67, W-W-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.18
- xG Atlético Madrid 1.52 vs Arsenal 1.17
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Atlético Madrid 1662 vs Arsenal 1712
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 2.88EV +3.8%Edge 3.0%Kelly 2.0%