Danish Superliga
FC Midtjylland vs AGF
Monday, Apr 20, 17:00
Consensus
Low confidence · 47.8%FC Midtjylland
53.4%
book 45.0%
Draw
24.7%
book 27.9%
AGF
21.9%
book 27.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 28.7% | 39.3% | 32.0% |
| poisson | 84.4% | 9.4% | 6.3% |
| elo | 31.3% | 29.4% | 39.3% |
| market | 45.0% | 27.9% | 27.1% |
- FC Midtjylland wPPG 1.74 (home 2.60, D-W-W-L-L)
- AGF wPPG 2.75 (away 2.33, W-W-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.07
- xG FC Midtjylland 3.25 vs AGF 0.80
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo FC Midtjylland 1598 vs AGF 1698
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker 1X2 prices
Value bets
- home 2.05EV +9.5%Edge 8.5%Kelly 9.1%