NBA
Los Angeles Lakers vs Houston Rockets
Sunday, Apr 19, 00:30
Consensus
Medium confidence · 54.5%Los Angeles Lakers
52.7%
book 35.0%
Houston Rockets
47.3%
book 65.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| form | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| normal | 68.6% | 31.4% |
| elo | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| market | 35.0% | 65.0% |
- Los Angeles Lakers wPPG 0.96 (home 1.71, L-W-W-L-L)
- Houston Rockets wPPG 1.13 (away 1.80, L-W-L-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.11
- Expected score Los Angeles Lakers 113.3 vs Houston Rockets 110.0
- Margin μ=5.80, σ=12
- P(home) = Φ(μ/σ) = 68.6%
- Elo Los Angeles Lakers 1560 vs Houston Rockets 1579
- Home-field bonus +60
- Devigged consensus of bookmaker Money line prices
Value bets
- home 2.75EV +45.0%Edge 17.7%Kelly 25.7%